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Chelsea

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Chelsea v Wigan – Saturday, 7th April 2012

Chelsea

Chelsea V Wigan Athletic

Chelsea Preview: Well the Blues put in a terrible display at home in the Champions League against Benfica in midweek. The Blues were second best in just about every department including possession and shots on goal, but they managed to scrape through with a 2-1 win to set up a Champions League semi final clash against Barcelona. So now, they have to switch back to Premier League mode again for the busy Easter period, while they try and hunt down Tottenham in fourth place. Chelsea start the weekend five points back of their London rivals, but with Spurs facing a tricky away trip, this could be a match in which Chelsea do close the gap. The Blues have decent home stats this season, even though they have been nowhere near their best. Chelsea have won nine, drawn three and lost three at Stamford Bridge this season, and are undefeated in their last five at the bridge. While Chelsea look rejuvenated under Roberto Di Matteo, there is a still a flatness about them which rears its ugly head far too often.

But even if Matteo shuffles his pack, because of big FA Cup and Champions League semi finals coming up, there should be enough to take this home fixture. This is one of the remaining fixtures in which the Blues cannot afford any dropped points, because they have a very tough run in after the Easter period. Three points are going to be vital for them if they are to put up a fight for fourth place Chelsea are averaging over two goals per game at home this season, and that alone should be enough to see off Wigan. Chelsea’s strikers are not in any rich vein of goal scoring form at all, so would look for big goalscoring support to come from the midfield again. John Terry does look set to play, even with his cracked ribs, he is ready to play through the pain for his club. They generally look as if they need a spark of inspiration, but they should be able to beat relegation threatened Wigan.

Wigan Preview: But Wigan have been showing some tremendous spirit in their quest to stay up this season. They have taken advantage of their fixture list and have only lost one of their last eight matches now in the league. That is better form that Chelsea. Wigan have produced back to back wins as well, beating Stoke City last week, and in their last away match, they went to Anfield and came away with a 2-1 win against all odds. So there is fight left in Roberto Martinez and his men, that is without any doubt, and they held Chelsea to a 1-1 draw at home earlier in the season. But this is another tough ask for them in their fight against relegation, and their away record reads W4 D3 L8 this season. Tough to really see Wigan keeping a clean sheet, as they have conceded on average two goals per away game this season, while they only average one goal per game going forward themselves. They are battling, they are giving it their all and still trying to play attractive football. No doubt they will be chasing a lot of possession, and as they have no out and out marksman, will someone stand up and steal points away from Stamford Bridge?

Odds: Chelsea ¼, Draw 5/1, Wigan 11/1 at Bet365

Form (most recent result last): Chelsea LWLDW, Wigan LDDWW

Stat Attack:
Chelsea have a great record against Wigan, losing just one of thirteen against the Latics
Wigan have never kept a clean sheet against Chelsea in the EPL
Wigan have lost five and drawn one of their last six visits to Stamford Bridge
Chelsea have lost just one of the last nine league games at home

Recommended Bet: Can this match produce anything other than a home win. There is a tremendous amount at stake for both sides, but surely Chelsea at home, and in decent form there, and with good history against the Latics will see this one out comfortably? A two goal winning margin for Chelsea is priced 3/1 at Bet365.

April 6th, 2012 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting

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Chelsea v Benfica – Wednesday, 4th April, 2012

Chelsea

Chelsea V Benfica

Is the key to success for the last English side left standing Europe, Chelsea, simply what happens on the pitch at Stamford Bridge? The Blues have won all four of their home games in the tournament this season, the most impressive coming in the previous round of the last sixteen, where they thumped Italian side Napoli 4-1. That was enough to overturn a woeful 3-1 first leg deficit and it was such a highly charged, emotional night at Stamford Bridge, that the Blues will be banking on their home form once again. Chelsea, under the temporary guidance of Roberto Di Matteo, grabbed a crucial 1-0 away win in Portugal last week, thanks to Salomon Kalou grabbing the only goal of the game. Di Matteo bravely shuffled his cards for the away leg, as he searched for some fresh legs following Chelsea’s busy schedule in the Premier League and FA Cup as well. So Chelsea do hold an advantage, and they have that precious away goal in their pocket to take back to Stamford Bridge.

This may be the time that Di Matteo calls upon the experience of his old guard, in contrast to the line up last week, to see Chelsea through. Didier Drogba makes a good option in your goalscorer markets, as he has netted five goals in his last five Champions League matches. In their four straight wins at Stamford Bridge in the UEFA Champions League, Chelsea have only conceded one goal and have fired in 14. Naturally the challenges are going to get tougher from here on out, because a semi final against either Barcelona or AC Milan awaits. Chelsea have a great record in the Champions League quarter finals, having lost once in their last nine home quarter final matches. The Blues had never faced Benfica before, but they have played FC Porto at home three times and Chelsea have prevailed on each of those occasions. The Blues became the first side this season to stop Benfica scoring in the Champions League, and that was a huge achievement out in Portugal, so the Blues have set themselves up well. Chelsea have the best home defensive record in the Champions League this season

But t is unlikely to be plain sailing again for Chelsea though, as Benfica do pose a hugely exciting and potentially explosive threat, and the Portuguese did out-shoot Chelsea 25-12 in the first leg. Benfica have impressed many this season with their attacking flair and creativity, and the two draws they earned against Manchester United in the group stage made people sit up and take notice of them. Nicolas Gaitan, a summer target for many clubs, is the tournament’s joint leader for goal assists, and Benfica had their chances in the first leg. They can’t totally be discounted here, although they start as underdogs, because they have great attacking options, and they have the potential of away goals on Wednesday night as well, which would blow this tie wide open again.

But Benfica, two times European Cup winners, have lost all three of their European quarter final ties against English opponents, and have only won seven out of 15 European quarter finals in total. The big stat working against Benfica here in Champions League history, is that only twice out of entire history of the tournament, has a team progressed after losing the first leg of a knock-out at home. The Portuguese side has also not managed a win against English opponents in their last five attempts, and a win is something that they must achieve on Wednesday night. Benfica are not out of this, but Chelsea do look as if they are having a grand, stubbornly defiant run in the Champions League. The Blues are not as good as they have been in previous years, but if the desire to fight is there, the Londoners could yet spring a massive surprise

Odds: Chelsea 4/6 at, Draw 3/1, Benfica 9/2 at Bet365

Stat Attack:

  • An English side has never lost at the quarter final stage of the Champions League after winning the first leg away from home.
  • Chelsea have scored first in all of their Champions League matches this season
  • Chelsea have scored in each of their last ten ECL matches
  • Didier Drogba has scored five in his last five ECL appearances now

Recommended Bet: Benfica have to come out and play to some extent, as they have to win and that will put the Chelsea defence under pressure. It will also leave Benfica susceptible to counter attacks from the Blues. Fernando Torres seems to be getting into heavy favour with Di Matteo and worked hard in the first leg. However, Didier Drogba’s run of five in five is worth riding at 11/8 with Bet Victor in the Anytime Goalscorer Market.

April 3rd, 2012 / lee - Category: UEFA Champions League Betting

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Aston Villa v Chelsea – Saturday, 31st March 2012

Aston Villa

Aston Villa V Chelsea

Aston Villa Preview: Well, Alex McLeish has been a man consistently soaking up more and more pressure in his position at Villa Park. There really has not any kind of step forward for the club, who are now only actually eight points off a relegation place. That should be more than enough of a cushion at this stage of the season, but work clearly needs doing at the club. They lost on their last outing, a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal, in which they were never really in the game. It means that Aston Villa have picked up just one win in their last seven league matches now, and have a long way to go before looking anything like competitive. It is perhaps the manner in which they are playing is the most disappointing to Villa fans, as they look negative, and lacking any real creativity when pushing forward. A win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge back in December looks a very distant memory at the moment.

They average exactly one goal per game over the whole season, with Darren Bent the only player looking like he was going break double figures, until he picked up an injury which ruled him out for the rest of the season. Villa have only conceded just over one goal per game at home, so they aren’t horrible at the back, but they just haven’t got any oomph going forward to build upon a decent, if not spectacular defence. Villa have been hit with a couple more injury problems just to add to their woes, with Charles N’Zogbia out for a month, along with Alan Hutton, joining long term injury problems for Richard Dunne and Bent. McLeish was already down to the bare bones to face Arsenal this really hasn’t helped. Villa have won four, drawn four and lost six at home this season, winning one, drawing two and losing two in their last five.

Chelsea Preview: Well, is the more competent Chelsea finally returning? Roberto Di Matteo bravely shuffled the pack for a midweek trip to face Benfica in the Champions League and came away with a hard working 1-0 win. Di Matteo had left Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba on the bench as he looked for some freshness. Chelsea looked well below par in their last Premier League outing, a dour 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge, again lacking a spark and looking just a bit tired. Failure to beat Spurs has left Chelsea five points out of fourth place, and with a very tough run in to the end of the season, a Champions League place looks a bit distant. But they have to keep going and this is a fixture on which they must capitalise. It is tricky matches like this which have tripped up Chelsea on the road this season, as the Blues have lost five, drawn five and won five this season.

They also suffered a huge embarrassment at Stamford Bridge against Villa back on December 31st, when they lost 3-1. Chelsea have lost all three of their last away matches in the Premier League, and are without a win in five. Not a great run of form outside of Stamford Bridge, but they have generally improved under Di Matteo. They have one foot in the door of the Champions League semi finals as it stands, and they have to have one eye on next Wednesday’s second leg at home against Benfica. Chelsea have looked better with Roberto Di Matteo in charge, but even he has only won one of three league matches.

This is a fixture which normally would be a banker for Chelsea, but it’s just not at the moment. They have only scored 18 away goals and have conceded 15 this season, and it could be another pack shuffle. Will be worth looking at Didier Drogba for your goalscoring betting, he has four in four matches against Villa. They are still alive in the FA Cup and Champions League, but can they mount an assault on fourth place in the Premier League?

Odds: Chelsea 19/20, Draw 13/5, Aston Villa 3/1 at Bet Victor

Form (most recent result last): Aston Villa LDDWL, Chelsea WLWLD

Stat Attack:

  • There has just been one win for Chelsea at Villa Park in their last 12 matches
  • Chelsea have scored only twice in their last five visits to Villa
  • Villa have won just two of their last ten EPL matches
  • Villa have not scored from a corner this season

Recommended Bet: We are expecting Didier Drogba to play a role here and as he has scored in each of his last four matches against Villa, he is worth looking at a price of 4/1 in the First Goalscorer Market.

March 28th, 2012 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting

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Benfica v Chelsea – Tuesday, 27th March 2012

Chelsea

Benfica V Chelsea

Can Chelsea prevail where Manchester United couldn’t in the Champions League, by taking out Portuguese side Benfica? Benfica were major contributors to the downfall of the Red Devils in the Champions League group stage, holding United to draws at the Estadio do Sport in Lisbon and at Old Trafford. Benfica played some fantastically up tempo attacking matches and have been one of the highlights of the tournament so far. It was a squeeze through to the quarter final stage for Benfica though, as they had to overcome a 3-2 away defeat in Russia against Zenit St Petersburg. They did so with a 2-0 win back in Lisbon, another very comprehensive display from them. This is a side which has won 11 of 12 matches in their domestic league at home this season, and they are averaging over three goals per game there. That is the attacking power that they have and the quick paced nature of their game could really give Chelsea a lot of problems. Benfica are strong at home in Europe as they have not been beaten in ten games now. In that run it includes the four wins and two draws from this season’s Champions League campaign. Benfica’s home record against English sides is W6 D3 L4.

So Chelsea will definitely have their hands full, and added to the London club’s problems is the fact that they haven’t won away from home in this year’s Champions League. They have lost two and drawn two of their four away matches this season, including that defensive disaster of a 3-1 defeat against Napoli in the first leg of the last 16. However, Chelsea turned that around with such a fantastic and amazing stirring display back at the Bridge, that is where this tie will be won and lost. Tuesday’s match in Portugal could just be about consolidation, keeping Benfica off the score-sheet and trying to snatch a precious away goal. Chelsea were not defensively sound under Andre Villas-Boas, but have tightened up since Roberto Di Matteo has come in. They need a big defensively display because Benfica, especially at home are quick and powerful. This is the first time that Chelsea have faced Benfica, but have faced Porto before, six time in fact, and have a W1 D2 record in Portugal therefore. Chelsea players David Luiz and Ramires both came from Benfica, so the team ties are there. We are not looking for an explosive Chelsea performance, just a solid one to give them a platform back at Stamford Bridge.

Odds: Benfica 6/4, Chelsea 23/10, Draw 11/5 at Bet Victor

Stat Attack:

  • Benfica have won the European Cup twice
  • Benfica have won all three of their European Cup quarter final ties against English teams
  • Chelsea have won five of their last seven Champions League quarter finals
  • Chelsea haven’t won an away match in this season’s Champions League

Recommended Bet: Little surprise that Benfica are favourites in the betting, because they are so good going forward, very quick and very creative. Quite the opposite of Chelsea. Chelsea still aren’t totally defensively sound by any means, and you can’t ignore their poor away form. Still, a score draw for 3/1 at Bet Victor looks attractive.

March 25th, 2012 / lee - Category: UEFA Champions League Betting

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Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur – Saturday, 24th March 2012

Chelsea V Tottenham

Chelsea Preview: Well, it will all be on the line now for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. The Blues host London rivals Spurs, in what will ultimately prove to be a battle for fourth spot in the league. Chelsea already have a five point gap to make up on Tottenham, so failure to take three points off Spurs will be devastating for the Blues. Chelsea tasted their first defeat under Roberto Di Matteo on Wednesday night, as they blew a 1-0 lead away at Manchester City in the final fifteen minutes. The Blues though, are playing with a lot more passion that they have shown at any other time during the season. The senior players have come back into form again and Chelsea will need them as they will look to power their way past an out of form Spurs. Chelsea have had their wobbles this season, that is without any kind of doubt whatsoever, but their home form will still be the backbone of their success or failure to make it into the Champions League next season.

This is a must win for Chelsea, because they have a much tougher run in to the end of the season than Tottenham do. So Chelsea have to take advantage of playing at home here. Chelsea have scored a W9 D2 L3 record at Stamford Bridge in the league this season, and while their strikers have struggled this season, Chelsea have scored in every one of their home matches. The Blues have netted 31 home goals, which is an average of 2.21 per game at Stamford Bridge. Their defence has not been as typically tight as Chelsea fans have been accustomed to this season, conceding over a goal per game at home. Chelsea’s league form makes for some interesting reading, because they have won two out of their last eight and that’s it (both at home with clean sheets). They are on a sequence of LWLWL which suggests that a win is due for them on Saturday. They haven’t lost at home against Spurs in 24 matches now, and they really don’t need any more incentive to go out and have another “Napoli night” type of performance.

Tottenham Preview: While there is a new air of optimism being breathed around Stamford Bridge following the departure of Andre Villas-Boas, there are nervous times at White Hart Lane. Spurs are on a slide of four Premier League matches without a win, picking up three defeats and a draw recently. They have lost some of their confidence, and they have lost that powerful fluency which saw them going along so strongly over most of the season. However, they have found things tough since the middle of January, losing four, drawing two and winning just two in their last eight. They have conceded third place, which they held so comfortably to Arsenal, and now while Chelsea will be looking at the five point gap between themselves and Spurs as huge, Spurs will be nervously noting how small it is looking. A Champions League place could well be up for grabs on Saturday.

Spurs were lucky to come away from White Hart Lane with a draw against Stoke in midweek. Rafael van der Vaart squeezed home in the 90th minute to earn Spurs a draw. It was another nervous display and Spurs as a scoring force have dried up a little bit. There have been just two goals in their last three games. Spurs do have great creativity, great width and power going forward but they just aren’t pulling everything together at the moment, especially in midfield. Tottenham’s away from reads W6 D3 L5 this season, but have only won once in their last six away games. There have been back to back away defeats against Arsenal and Everton heading into this game, and the outcome at Stamford Bridge could all be about momentum, which Chelsea have.

Odds: Chelsea 5/6, Draw 13/5, Spurs 10/3 at Bet365 

Form (most recent result last): Chelsea LWLWL, Tottenham WLLLD

Stat Attack:

  • Spurs have lost sixteen and drawn eight of their last 24 visits to Stamford Bridge
  • Harry Redknapp has lost on all eight of his last visits to Stamford Bridge
  • Chelsea have thrown away the most points from a winning position this season
  • Spurs have won just two of their last nine league matches

Recommended Bet: Well, Chelsea go off as favourites and that is because of home advantage and Tottenham’s wobble at the moment. They have to win this match, whereas Spurs would be happy with a draw at the moment. Look for a Chelsea break out of -1 Asian Handicap for 6/4 at Bet365 which gives good coverage.

March 23rd, 2012 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting

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Manchester City v Chelsea – Wednesday, 21st March 2012

Manchester City v Chelsea

Manchester City Preview: So the Premier League title pressures are really mounting on City boss Roberto Mancini now, as they face into this tough test trailing Man Utd by four points in the race. City’s big downfall came in their last league match, which was away at Swansea City, where a late goal undone them after their strikers misfired again at the worst time. To cap a poor week for the Citizens, City then went out of the Europa League against Sporting Lisbon, winning the second leg at the Etihad Stadium but losing out on away goals. So could that have been the defining week, when Mancini’s expensively assembled squad threw away all chances of silverware this year? Manchester City have a tougher run in to the end of the season than Manchester United, and now in arrears to their rivals, City have an uphill task. However, they have their great home form to rely on against a Chelsea side which has had new life breathed into them. City have been flawless at home in the Premier League this season, and need to keep that streak going on Wednesday night if they are going not going to let Manchester United have all their own way from here on out. This really would be a bad time for City to lose their winning streak at home.

So it has been fourteen wins from fourteen games at home this season, and they have won the last three without conceding a single goal, and scoring eight themselves. So they are definitely going to be banking on home form to keep up their title challenge. City of course have their prolific pack of forwards, and added to the mix could be Carlos Tevez. The now back in favour Argentinian could be in line for a first team place again against Chelsea according to manager Roberto Mancini. Tevez has a prolific goalscoring record of 44 goals in 69 league matches for Manchester City and his creativity and class is needed now more than ever. Will he be made the scapegoat though if City fail to lift the title this season? Mancini has apologised to fans for the teams’ poor performances against Swansea and Sporting Lisbon recently, and the boss took some criticism for poor tactical options in these matches. City’s record at home is commendable. They have scored 42 goals and conceded just six, and they have found the back of the net in all of their league home matches. They average 3 goals per game at home, with heavy contributions from Sergio Aguero and Mario Balotelli at the Etihad Stadium, who have scored almost half of City’s home goals between them.

Chelsea Preview: Another big night for interim Chelsea boss Roberto Di Matteo, who has now inspired the club to four straight wins. There was a good 5-2 win over Leicester City in the FA Cup quarter finals on Sunday for Chelsea, and even Fernando Torres got amongst the goals. The highlight of Di Matteo’s short tenure, was of course the epic Champions League match against Napoli, in which the Blues played their best game of the season, and looked a totally new, energized and enthusiastic outfit. It is busy times for Chelsea, dealing with Europe, the FA Cup and trying to chase down fourth spot in the Premier League. They also have to play Tottenham in the Premier League on Saturday, so the big games do not stop coming for them. The Blues beat Manchester City 2-1 at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, and that is just what they need again. Finally, they are finding their way to goal at the moment, and looking a much more confident and fluent side going forward. Suddenly all of the Chelsea players look to be on the same page and playing for the same cause, instead of the disjointed air that they had under Andre Villas-Boas.

Chelsea’s away form in the Premier League has not been great of late though, and they have only won one of five away matches since the turn of the year. They have suffered back to back defeats in their last two away matches, against Everton and West Brom. So not great form on the road, and it actually stretches back to just one away win in seven for the Blues. That is where their title challenge fell apart. Overall, there have been five wins, five draws and four defeats for the Blues on their league travels this season and they have conceded in each of their last three away games, and have failed to score in their last two. Chelsea haven’t been scoring heavily away from home, averaging just 1.21 goals per game, but defensively they have been sound away from the Bridge, conceding on average under one goal per game. While we all know what is at stake for Man City here, Chelsea also desperately need the points to keep themselves in with a shot of retaining a Champions League place next season, starting the game three points back of fourth placed Arsenal.

Odds: Man City 10/11, Draw 13/5, Chelsea 3/1 at Paddy Power

Form (Most recent result last): Man City WWWWL, Chelsea DLWDW

  • Carlos Tevez has scored six in his last five games against Chelsea
  • City’s most frequent home scoreline this season has been 3-0 wins (five times)
  • Chelsea have won four of the last six away at Man City (but City have won the last two meetings)
  • Man City have scored first in 82% of all their games this season
  • There have been four penalties in the last five meetings between these two

Recommended Bet: Hopefully this is as good of a game as it should be. Both teams need the points and it will be wonderful to see them go at it in a positive frame of mind. Chelsea have found new life, and City have had a rough week or so. It is hard to look past City’s supreme home form though, as they are a different side there. Could be value in backing Chelsea’s positive streak at the moment though for value coverage in a Chelsea +0.5 Asian Handicap at Evens with Bet Victor (which pays out a win for a draw).

March 19th, 2012 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting

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Chelsea v Leicester City – Sunday, 18th March 2012

It is back to down business after all the euphoria of an amazing night at Stamford Bridge in the Champions League on Wednesday night. The Blues put in arguably their best performance of the season to overturn a 3-1 first leg deficit against a very dangerous Napoli side. Importantly for the Blues it was the old guard which really stood up to be counted in the match, with Didier Drogba, John Terry and Frank Lampard on the score sheet. Chelsea needed that big input from the senior players, who seemed to have fallen out of favour for previous boss Andre Villas-Boas. Interim manager Roberto Di Matteo though has turned to them in Chelsea’s hour of need, and they have responded with three wins from three for Di Matteo. The Italian’s reign in the Chelsea hot seat began with an FA Cup replay away at Championship side Birmingham City. That was safely negotiated and now they face another Championship side as they look to reach the semi finals. With no chance of winning the Premier League, and even a place in next season’s Champions League under threat, if Di Matteo can replicate what previous interim boss Guus Hiddink did by winning the FA Cup, then there at least could be smiles at the end of the season. Chelsea, on the back of their rejuvenated performance in the week are one of the favourites to take the FA Cup this year, and they should be able to safely negotiate this tie, so you would think.

Leicester City are a mid table side in the Championship, and are not too bad of a side at that. Being the only team outside of the Premier League left in the last eight of the 2011/12 FA Cup, the Foxes are naturally the big outsiders. However, they did claim a Premier League scalp in the last round, when they went to Carrow Road and beat Norwich 2-1. Prior to that, there were wins over Swindon and Nottingham Forest, so Chelsea are going to be the big test for the Foxes. They will probably be a little disheartened to see Chelsea come back into such great form, but that should only be taken in context of the match. Chelsea started the game against Napoli in arrears and simply had to come out and play a game which was powerful, attack minded and passionate. There will probably not be that same kind of urgency or tempo when Leicester are at Stamford Bridge. It just doesn’t work that way, and if the Championship side frustrate Chelsea for long periods, we have seen the Blues defence give away goals. Leicester have won three and lost two of their last five Championship matches. Chelsea lost against a Championship side in the 2008 quarter finals, Barnsley after being red hot favourites.

Leicester boss Nigel Pearson was in defence for Middlesbrough that day in the 1997 FA Cup Final, when Roberto Di Matteo scored a screamer from long distance with just 42 seconds on the clock.

Odds: Chelsea 3/10, Draw 5/1, Leicester 10/1 at BetVictor

Stat Attack

  • Only on four of the last sixteen occasions when a team from outside of the Premier League has played in the FA Cup quarter final, has the lower ranked team prevailed.
  • This is Chelsea’s sixth quarter final in seven seasons, progressing in four of themselves
  • Leicester have kept five clean sheets in their last six FA Cup quarter final away fixtures
  • Leicester have never beaten Chelsea in the FA Cup

Recommended Bet: While everyone are expecting Chelsea to run rampant, you need to bear in mind they have a tough Premier League fixture at Man City in the week, so that will influence their input in this game. Therefore Chelsea to Win By 2 Goals is handily priced at 3/1 with Bet365.

March 17th, 2012 / lee - Category: FA Cup Betting

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Chelsea v Napoli – Wednesday, 14th March 2012

Chelsea v Napoli

What can Roberto Di Matteo do differently to try and keep Chelsea’s champions league hopes alive? The Blues suffered a 3-1 defeat out in Naples in the first leg, and that was after Juan Mata had pounced to put he Blues ahead with a precious away goal. But, thanks to one of the worst defensively displays you’ll see in European football, Chelsea have a two goal deficit to try and overcome back at the Bridge. It hat a likely outcome? Well, realistically you can see Chelsea bagging themselves a couple of goals, now that things around Stamford Bridge are a bit more harmonious after Andre Villas-Boas got the sack.

Chelsea scoring may not be the issue, and a two nil win would see them through the quarter finals. The real issue is whether or not they are good enough at the back to keep out the strong Napoli attack. Gary Cahill and John Terry played together for the first time this season at Chelsea on Saturday in their win over Stoke and they looked very comfortable. Granted, they will be put under more pressure from the pace of Napoli’s Lavezzi, Cavanai and Maggio, and just one away goal for the Italians could pretty much wrap this tie up as a contest. Chelsea don’t look the side who can go out and score four goals on the night.

So a clean sheet is a must to give themselves a chance, and Di Matteo diplomatically gave the senior players the starting nod against Stoke on the weekend, leaving the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Juan Mata on the bench. Wednesday is going to be a big marker in Chelsea’s season. Would defeat be a disaster though? It would be one less distraction in seeing them trying to secure a top four finish. They are still in the FA Cup too. But of course owner Roman Abramovich wants Europe’s top prize, and Di Matteo, if he can pull of one of the great Stamford Bridge nights, may just jump to the top of his Abramovich’s list.

One thing which may give Chelsea some hope, is that Napoli’s defence was terrible in the first leg as well. They were as wide open as Chelsea were, only Chelsea didn’t have the same punch up front as the Italians did. Napoli, who beat Manchester City in the group stage at home, and drew at the Etihad Stadium, have incredible strike power. They are also in fantastic form in Serie A, having rolled off five straight wins and they buried six goals past Betis Sevilla on the weekend. So Napoli are likely to cause the Chelsea back line problems, even if Chelsea enjoy the lions share of possession, because the Italians are quick and powerful. The Italians can also afford to sit back just a little bit and hit Chelsea on the counter attack, because they know the Blues have to come at them. Napoli deserved their win, but there are holes at the back which Chelsea could exploit on the night.

Match Odds: Chelsea 4/5, Napoli 13/5, Draw 7/2 at Bet365

Key Stat: Chelsea have not won any of their last five Champions League knock-out matches at Stamford Bridge. There have been draws against Liverpool, Barcelona and FC Copenhagen and defeats to Inter Milan and Manchester United. So not a great streak for the Blues. That’s hard to overlook, especially with how unconvincing they have been for the large part this season.

Recommended bet: Chelsea are favourites to win the match and that’s fair enough being at home. Do they have enough up front and at the back to see off the dangerous Napoli in the tie? It looks a big ask, so that is why there is value in Napoli getting something out of this. However, the Blues need someone to lead from the front and that has to be Didier Drogba, who is 5/1 favourite at Bet Victor in the First Goalscorer market.

 

 

March 12th, 2012 / lee - Category: UEFA Champions League Betting

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Chelsea V Stoke City – Saturday, 10th March 2012

Chelsea v Stoke

Well the Andre Villas-Boas era has ended at Stamford Bridge, short as it was. The Blues, under the guidance now of former player Roberto Di Matteo secured a bit of steady progress by picking up a win at St Andrews against Birmingham in the FA Cup fifth round replay on Tuesday. There wasn’t a whole sale change about Chelsea’s set up, but we should see a stronger Chelsea side at Stamford Bridge. Di Matteo is over his first little hurdle and now needs to get Chelsea playing in the league probably and the senior players at the club have to play for the places, play for their club and try to make an assault on that fourth place finish. The Blues are already three points back of fourth placed Arsenal in the race to claim the last Champions League place, and with just one league win in their last six, the Blues can’t afford any more sloppy mistakes. They have been full of defensive errors and lack of cohesion and clinical finishing all season. There is a tough job for Matteo ahead, who has a lot at stake himself, because he is line to get the permanent manager job as well. Can the breath of fresh air kick start Chelsea’s season? Matteo should get Chelsea looking more solid, but it whether or not, their strikers can start performing consistently for the first time this season. Matteo really needs the senior players like Lampard and Drogba on his side. Chelsea still have a strong home record of eight wins, two draws and just three defeats, averaging 2.3 goals per match at the Bridge. Stoke went through a bit of a mini slump recently, losing four straight Premier League matches recently, but have won their last two back to back and look back on the path. Stoke are a handful for most sides, they are strong physically and of course like their direct style of football, which could test Chelsea’s shaky back line. But Stoke are the joint second lowest scoring side in the Premier League at the moment and they average just 0.69 goals per game away from home. That, in terms of goals, is nine for and 24 against on their travels this season. But they have earned clean sheets in their last two matches, both home fixtures against Swansea and Norwich, and held Chelsea to a 0-0 draw on the opening day of the season. Tony Pulis would probably be delighted with that on Saturday.

Verdict: Surely the Chelsea players have something to prove to their fans now in their first league match post-Villas-Boas. The senior players and the former boss didn’t get on, that was clear to see, so if those senior players have gotten their way, it is time for them to prove their worth. So we should see a revived Chelsea on Saturday and their home form is strong enough to take three points from this one, and an important three points it will be, because that will be a big building block to work from for the rest of the season.

Form: Chelsea DDLWL, Stoke LLLWW

Key Stat: Chelsea have won seven of the last nine meetings against Stoke City, and while Stoke have earned draws in their last two against the Blues, the Potters have only scored in three of those last nine matches against Chelsea. With Stoke averaging below one goal per game away from home, it adds up to Chelsea win.

Odds: Chelsea 2/5, Draw 15/4, Stoke 8/1 at Bet Victor

Recommended Bet: Well, the Blues should be able to wrap this one up, despite Stoke’s mini revival. The Blues need to stand up now and a steady 2-0 win Correct Score fetches 3/1 at Bet365 for the home side.

 

March 10th, 2012 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting

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Saturday’s Premiership Previews (25 February 2012)

 

Chelsea V Bolton Wanderers

With the worst win percentage of any previous Chelsea manager during the Roman Abramovich era, you could argue Andre Villas-Boas is living on borrowed time at Stamford Bridge. Victory over relegation favourites Bolton in the Premier League would buy him a little more though, but is the writing may already be on the wall following a retched week in the cups in which they were held by Championship side Birmingham in the FA Cup, shortly before succumbing in Naples to Napoli, losing 3-1 in the opening leg of their last-16 Champions League tie with the Italians.

Villas-Boas’ decision to omit several of his more experienced players caused a stir before and especially after Tuesday’s game in Naples, with Ashley Cole and Frank Lampard among those left out of the Chelsea XI amid reports of dressing room bust-ups between the manager and some of the senior players at the club. So it will be intriguing to see who the Portuguese tactician includes in his team-sheet for Saturday’s must-win clash at home to Bolton, whom the Blues have an imperious record against – they’ve won each of the previous seven league meetings, including a 5-1 romp at The Reebok earlier in the season in which the aforementioned Lampard netted a hat-trick.

An extremely tall order for Bolton then, going by not only their dismal record in this fixture but also their league form in general. The Trotters reside in 19TH, just a point off safety, after going their previous three league games without a win. However, a routine 2-0 win at Millwall in the fifth round of the FA Cup last weekend will have lifted spirits somewhat, but this is a team which has suffered some heavy defeats on the road against the big sides this season: Arsenal (3-0), Liverpool (3-1), Man Utd (3-0) and Tottenham (3-0).

As is seemingly the norm these days whenever Chelsea play, there could be goals here – especially considering who their opponents are, which is a Bolton side with the second leakiest rearguard in the Premier League. The Blues, meanwhile, will be without both Jose Bosingwa and centre-half stalwart John Terry, this in a defence which has been breached in each of its last five matches including last week’s home FA Cup tie with Birmingham. Ladbrokes go evens on both teams finding the net – a steal, in my opinion!

Form: Chelsea (5TH) WDDDL; Bolton (19TH) LWDLL

Key Stat: Chelsea are bidding to win their eighth straight Premier League fixture versus Bolton, whom they thrashed 5-1 at The Reebok back in October.

Match Odds: Chelsea 2/7; Draw 9/2; Bolton 10/1 (Bet365)

Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score @ evens (Ladbrokes)

 

 

Newcastle United V Wolverhampton Wanderers

While there is an undeniable gulf between these two sides, with one vying for Champions League football and the other fighting tooth and nail at the bottom, Newcastle and Wolves have more in common than you might think. No it isn’t that they’re both without a manager – Wolves, however, are after Mick McCarthy was given his marching orders earlier in the month – it is that they were both on the wrong end of 5-1 drubbings last time out, with Newcastle battered at Tottenham and Wolves thrashed at home by West Brom.

With a passionate Toon army behind them, and with a manager whom the players have the utmost respect for, you would have to fancy Newcastle bouncing back from their White Hart Lane horror show. And that’s before taking into account their respective placings in the league table. Whereas Alan Pardew’s Magpies are flying high in 6TH, a point off the Champions League places, Wolves are languishing down in 18TH, two points off the foot of the table, and have won just one of their previous eleven away from home in the league.

It’s incredible just how many names have been linked with the current managerial vacancy at Molineux. One of the first things any new appointment has to address is this porous defence of theirs defence; it’s now 22 Premier League matches without a clean sheet for Wanderers, who have shipped twelve in their last four league games alone. The omens do not suggest they’ll fare much better at St James Park either, where they were thumped 4-1 last season.

You won’t be getting rich any time soon with the odds available on the home side, so it could pay to back one of their Senegalese strike duo landing the first blow. Demba Ba (7/2 FGS with Boylesports) has been a handful all season for opposing defences and is the division’s second leading goalscorer with 16, but Papiss Cisse has already shown glimpses of the quality which made him a scoring machine over in Germany and could well steal the limelight from his compatriot.

Form: Newcastle (6TH) WLWWL; Wolves (18TH) DLLWL

Key Stat: Wolves have won only one of their previous 11 Premier League away games (W1 D4 L6); Newcastle have won their last three at home.

Match Odds: Newcastle 8/13; Draw 3/1; Wolves 19/4 (BetVictor)

Recommended Bet: Papiss Cisse First Goalscorer @ 19/4 (BetVictor)

 

 

Queens Park Rangers V Fulham

Fulham ran riot when these two West London foes locked horns for the very first time in the Premier League at Craven Cottage last October, running out emphatic 6-0 winners to record what was at the time their first league victory of the season at the seventh attempt. Speaking of seven, that is exact number of goals the Cottagers have plundered on their travels. Something tells me Martin Jol’s men may not hit QPR for sixth this time, especially being the top-flight’s poorest travellers and all.

No team has scored fewer goals (7 from 12 games) or registered fewer points (8 from a possible 36; W1 D5 L6) away from home than Fulham, who are notorious for being darn-right awful on the road. Fortunately for them, QPR have been just as dismal at home. Just three teams have accrued less points on their own patch than Rangers (10 from a possible 36; W2 D4 L6), who have won one – a 3-1 success against rock-bottom Wigan – and lost three of their last four at Loftus Road, where they were beaten 2-1 by Wolves in their last home game.

All the makings of a cagey affair then, with few very goals, although, I am sure something similar was muttered pre-game before their clash at Craven Cottage in October. It should say everything you need to know that even bookmakers are none the wiser as to who will triumph in this contest: QPR, who have won only one of their six matches under Mark Hughes, are 17/10 to record a win on their own patch against a homesick Fulham side who are 7/4 and won’t actually have to do very much in the way of travelling. No doubt the draw at 23/10 will prove a popular punt.

Form: QPR (16TH) LWDLL; Fulham (12TH) LWDLW

Key Stat: Contested their first ever Premier League meeting at Craven Cottage in October, which Fulham emphatically won 6-0.

Match Odds: QPR 17/10; Draw 23/10; Fulham 7/4 (BetVictor)

Recommended Bet: Draw @ 23/10 (BetVictor)

 

 

West Bromwich Albion V Sunderland

It hasn’t felt this good to be a Sunderland fan for a long, long time. Much of that is down to the manager, Martin O’Neill, who since taking charge back in December has guided the club into the top half of the Premier League, not to mention the quarter-finals of the FA Cup. It would be a shame for their bubble to burst at The Hawthorns then, especially with the Tyne-Wear derby looming large, but in a problematic fixture, that is very much a possibility.

When the teams met at the Stadium of Light in their first encounter of the season, Sunderland needed to claw back a two-goal deficit in order to scrape a 2-2 draw. Then there was last season’s corresponding league meeting at The Hawthorns, a game which produced the solitary goal – Peter Odemwingie with West Brom’s winner. So this fixture has hardly been a bed of roses for the Black Cats in recent times, although times have changed a lot since either of those contests.

While Sunderland have had their fair share of struggles versus West Brom, it would take a very brave punter to oppose them this weekend. They’ve taken 22 of a possible 33 points since Martin O’Neill took charge, winning six of their previous nine in the league – which, of course, does not include their impressive 2-0 victory at home to Arsenal in the FA Cup last weekend.

As for the Baggies, Roy Hodgson’s side have won only two of their last eight Premier League fixtures and have the worst home record in the division, with just eight points registered from a possible 36 – they’ve not won at The Hawthorns for six games. However, being absent from last week’s FA Cup action should mean they have a slight advantage in the conditioning stakes, while they should still be buoyed by their 5-1 thrashing of Wolves at Molineux in their very last league game.

Form: West Brom (14TH) LWDLW; Sunderland (9TH) LWWWL

Key Stat: Sunderland have accrued as many points (18) in their last eight league matches as Manchester City and Manchester United.

Match Odds: West Brom 7/5; Draw 23/10; Sunderland 2/1 (StanJames)

Recommended Bet: Draw @ 23/10 (StanJames)

February 24th, 2012 / Matt - Category: Premiership Betting

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